Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Letting stops breatheWe talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.
Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.
ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stopAs a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.
The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positionsTake profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.
Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit ordersThat covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.
Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratiosBe extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.
A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Risk-adjusted returnsNot all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
Sharpe ratioThe Sharpe ratio works like this:
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VARVAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.
A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part IIIAvailable here
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
On a popular forex robot review resource from a large group of traders from around the world, an experienced team of real professionals introduced to the traders a collection of five robots that are the best and provide users with the widest functionality for easy Forex trading. Robots need a remote server (computer) that operates around the clock and has a permanent Internet connection. It should be borne in mind that not all consultants are profitable. There are many restrictions on their work; most novice traders do not want to invest in the purchase of consultants.submitted by fxroboreview to u/fxroboreview [link] [comments]
Our specialists have compiled a list of 5 Expert Advisors that give traders the highest opportunities to find the best robots that are available to work on Forex, a list of 5 best Expert Advisors that the most experienced traders use and receive solid financial resources.
The list of 5 robots, to facilitate the work of traders in the Forex market has been drawn up for a long time, during all this period the principles of functioning of the ten most versatile, optimal robots for comfortable trading on Forex were carefully studied, and here our experienced specialists made and showed the traders a list of 5 the most popular, most effective, functional robots –
Our list includes the top 5 best Forex Trading Advisors, which are the most optimal automated programs that save the trader from serious inconvenience: the need to constantly monitor the trading process, stay on hold and observe the dynamics of currency quotes. It must be said that the use of commercial robots significantly reduces the nervous load on the trader and significantly reduces the number of errors.
The main advantage of sales consultants is that they have a well-defined algorithm that works well. You can define your own ideas by using an algorithm that is further implemented in practical currency trading. Commercial transactions used in the foreign exchange market can be automatic or semi-automatic. It is not difficult to guess that in the first case, the operation goes into automatic mode, which prevents the trader from interfering with the reconciliation process and relies on a previously written algorithm.
However, this does not absolve you of the obligation to set the robot into operating mode as a financial instrument. In addition, the Forex trading robot must be updated periodically to adapt to changing market conditions. When it comes to semi-automatic consultants, they are more helpful to the trader as the final decision is still up to him. However, a commercial robot does the basic job for humans: it performs mathematical calculations, analyzes the market, and provides recommendations at the right time to enter and exit the trading floor.
Imagine you do not have Internet access. At this point, an automated consultant can successfully act for you. All you have to do is give clear instructions and start trading. You can view the work of an expert assistant on a demo account Forex online without risking your own money, and get detailed information on the effectiveness of the consultant.
In our list, you can choose among the auto trading consultants the most efficient system that fully meets all your requirements and expectations. It should be noted that mathematical systems use calculations and conduct various trading operations in ways that do not take into account the dynamics of currency price changes. These experts include equalization systems. Technical systems include algorithms that work with charts, metrics, and technical analysis that are required to conduct trading operations effectively. Combined advisers, in turn, do not exclude mathematical probabilities and depend on technical analysis.
submitted by alex_fortran to u/alex_fortran [link] [comments]
To make trading on the Forex market not only profitable, but also comfortable, many traders use automatic trading systems, or, as they are also called, Forex robots or EA (Expert Advisor).
What are EA for? The answer is very simple. If you want to not miss a single opportunity to open or close a profitable transaction, then you need to watch the market around the clock, which no one is able to do.
In addition, the trader does not always manage to cope with his emotions, and he makes trading decisions based not on calculation and logic, but on his own feelings - for example, a feeling of excitement or, conversely, excitement. Often such transactions are unprofitable. An Expert Advisor does not have emotions, which means that the human factor can be immediately excluded from trading, which greatly increases the effectiveness of trading.
There are many things to consider when choosing the most profitable and result-oriented EA. For example, it is strongly recommended, before choosing an expert advisor, to pay attention to profit / loss, risk / profit, stop-limits and other relevant statistics by conducting a test inside the platform on historical data. Even if you choose an expert advisor with an excellent reputation, there is always a risk of loss, nevertheless. Thus, it is also important to find out the degree of risk that you are willing to take.
Before using EAs in real trading, you need to test expert advisor - for example, on a demo account or on archive quotes.
Please note that the quality of the history of quotes for different forex brokers is different, which can cause serious discrepancies in the results of testing one expert advisor on accounts from different brokers.
This is necessary in order to understand how effective one or another automatic program is and not to risk one’s own means. After all, if it turns out that on a demo account the EA proved to be not the best and did not bring you the expected profit, then you should not use this expert advisor in real trading (or you need to better configure its work). But if you see that the expert advisor is showing good trading results, then it should be noted.
Testing an expert advisor before use is a prerequisite for profitable trading.
For those of you wondering what an EA (forex automatic trading program) looks like and how it works, here is an example of one I've been working on today:submitted by wafflestation to Forex [link] [comments]
What this particular EA does is tries to identify trends using a few indicators on two timeframes. It then outputs what it thinks of the market in the little panel you see on the top-right corner.
Right now it's saying USDCAD has a weak bearish trend, which makes sense as you can see on the left side of the chart there was a gradual decline yesterday which ended abruptly with the massive dump (that's the Powell interest rate announcement yesterday btw).
If this bot had been live trading, it would have jumped on the downward trend (first candle shown on the chart, roughly 1.32650) and rode it down until the trend turned around 1.31350 before bailing out with 130 pips profit.
Since then the pair has been floundering a bunch as the market hasn't figured out where it's going now. However it looks like it might start turning around and head up - that's what MACD is starting to suggest, the upward momentum is surpassing the downward momentum. So we're likely going to see a rally heading into next week. Because of this uncertainty, the bot would have stopped until it can clearly see a strong trend going.
EA's are very useful because:
Anyways, this is what an EA looks like. Happy thursday :)
Update as of Friday morning. After doing some more work on it after I posted this yesterday I set the bot live. It identified the entry conditions on GBPCAD and placed a sell order (see the yellow box around the green candle in the screenshot below). At first the market started swinging upwards, but the overall daily trend was down so the bot held it's ground. This morning it's at 80 pips profit and still going strong:
Do you currently have a profitable strategy? Because an EA builder just automates strategies, Molanis or whatever isn't going to make a difference, they're just GUI interfaces for generating the code....
Usually business, education, and government surplus. People use GovDeals.com on here, but I'm still a fan of the local auctions you can go to that don't have a hundred people f...
submitted by StrattonForex to u/StrattonForex [link] [comments]
An expert adviser is simply a program which can execute any task it's instructed to do without any direct human involvement required.
They allow the user to automate the trading and analytical process on a given platform such as MT4.If trying to make an EA one needs to use an editor such as Meta Editor on the MT4 terminal. Then the user gives a set of instructions to the program to execute under certain conditions, it can be user to execute multiple trades in seconds or perform analytical process on any given feed/information given on the MT4 platform.
Why EAs are popular and used?
Quick to open positions and react to market volatility:
With so many instruments available to trade and so much analysis to do, humans can not make time for the analysis of the market and cannot open multiple positions to avail all the intraday opportunities in the market. While an EA can analyze a greater number of instruments to make truly a diverse portfolio and react to market volatility much faster.
EA strategies can be back tested:
The set of instructions or the strategy that you code in the EA can be back tested to ensure that it's delivering the results wanted by the developer.
No Emotions to hamper potential profits:
Emotions and psycology plays an important role when the trade goes the wrong way. One of the many benefits of an EA is that it has no emotions as compared to humans and can open close trades based on the parameters given and respond with risk management protocols if trades go wrong.
No rest needed :
Unlike humans the EA doesn't need to eat, sleep, drop kids to school or go to work etc. They start compiling the instruction set whenever the program/EA is executed. It can perform market analysis all the time without break and open trades when there are more potential opportunities in the market which the human trader might be missing because of his busy life.
However traders should be aware of the risks involved with using an EA. There are many good ones giving a substantial return over investment per anum but many of the ones which claim astronomical returns might turn out to be fraudulent. If these astronomical returns were that easy to get using EAs then all banks and hedge funds would just put their money with the EA and the world would be a much richer place :D
While checking for EAs to buy be sure to check their history , user reviews and back tested data before risking your investment. Remember many unethical brokers make fake historical trade data which these fraudulent EA developers market online and entice clients with huge returns.
For more News from the FX Markets visit our website.
We also have on demand webinars for clients who are interested in growing their knowledge in the FX sphere.
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